First Exit Polls Highlight Voters’ Priorities in the 2024 Election

Voters heading to the polls in the 2024 presidential election have placed a strong emphasis on economic issues and immigration, according to early exit poll data. However, a significant portion of voters also expressed deep concerns about the future of American democracy, illustrating a complex set of priorities in an election marked by dissatisfaction and a desire for change.

Top Issues: Economy and Immigration

Exit polls from AP VoteCast, a large-scale survey involving over 110,000 voters across the nation, show the economy as the leading issue on voters' minds. About 40% of respondents cited the economy and jobs as the most pressing problems, highlighting concerns over persistent inflation and the high costs of essentials such as groceries, housing, and gasoline.

Following the economy, immigration emerged as another primary concern, with around 20% of voters identifying it as their top issue. The prominence of immigration in voter concerns underscores ongoing debates over border security and immigration reform in the United States.

Democracy: A Decisive Factor in Voter Decisions

When it came to the motivations behind their votes, nearly half of all voters said the future of democracy was the most critical factor guiding their choice. This issue eclipsed even the economy and immigration, showing a broader concern for the direction of the nation's democratic institutions. Other issues, including inflation, abortion, and free speech, were noted but ranked lower in importance.

Voters Divided on Candidates’ Strengths

In terms of handling specific issues, voters saw former President Donald Trump as more capable on the economy and immigration, while Vice President Kamala Harris held an edge on abortion rights. Trump’s focus was on tariffs and increased oil production as means to bolster the economy, whereas Harris promoted tax breaks for parents, homebuyer assistance, and support for startups as future-focused solutions.

On abortion, Harris's position resonated more with voters who viewed the issue as a matter of personal freedom, contrasting with Trump’s support for leaving abortion policy to individual states. The two candidates were nearly tied on their perceived ability to manage taxes.

A Call for Change Amid Widespread Dissatisfaction

Around 80% of voters expressed a desire for “substantial change” in how the country is governed, with a quarter calling for a complete overhaul. This widespread demand reflects a national sentiment that the current system is falling short. However, what this change should entail remains a point of deep division, as the two candidates presented markedly different visions for the country.

Trump’s campaign emphasized a return to his previous administration’s policies as the answer to the nation’s problems, while Harris positioned herself as a candidate focused on the future. This election season was marked by the contrasting approaches of the candidates, with Harris assuming the Democratic nomination following President Joe Biden’s decision to step down, while Trump navigated a campaign amid legal challenges and concerns about his rhetoric.

Economic Frustration Persists

Frustration over economic conditions was pervasive. Six in ten voters rated the economy as “not so good” or “poor,” similar to sentiments in 2020. Although government aid helped stabilize the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation spiked in the aftermath, with high food and energy prices exacerbated by global events like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Rising costs are a major worry, with two-thirds of voters concerned about food and grocery prices, and many also citing worries over healthcare, housing, and gas prices. While nearly 60% of voters reported stable personal finances, about 30% felt they were falling behind, up from 2020.

Concerns Over Candidate Experience and Leadership Style

Both candidates have faced skepticism from voters. About 25% of voters viewed Harris, who became the Democratic nominee relatively quickly after Biden’s exit, as untested. On the other hand, Trump’s approach to leadership, especially his refusal to accept the 2020 election outcome, left many voters wary of a possible slide toward authoritarianism. Nearly 60% expressed concern that another Trump term could threaten democratic norms, with slightly fewer voicing similar concerns about Harris.

Polling Data

These insights are drawn from AP VoteCast, a comprehensive survey conducted in both English and Spanish by NORC at the University of Chicago, on behalf of major news outlets. The survey ran for eight days, ending when polls closed on Election Day.

As America faces significant economic, social, and political crossroads, the early exit polls reveal a country grappling with divergent visions for its future and pressing issues that continue to define this pivotal election.