Cuomo’s Edge Shrinks. Heatwave + Early Vote + Youth Turnout = Potential Mamdani Upset?

Cuomo Once Held a Commanding Lead—But an Early-Vote Wave of Young Progressives Could Hand Mamdani a Stunning Upset

The New York Editorial Report – June 23, 2025

Momentum Shift: Fresh Data Up-Ends the Conventional Wisdom

The final Emerson College / PIX11 / The Hill survey (June 18-20) still shows Andrew Cuomo narrowly in front on first-choice ballots, 35 %-32 %, but when the ranked-choice rounds are simulated Zohran Mamdani edges past, 52 %-48 %. (theguardian.com, emersoncollegepolling.com)That four-point RCV advantage is the first time any major pollster has shown the 33-year-old assemblymember actually winning after preferences are re-allocated—a finding echoed in a late-breaking NY Post–commissioned survey released Monday morning. (nypost.com)

A Thunderclap in the Betting Markets

Within hours of the Emerson/PIX11 numbers dropping, shares on the Polymarket prediction exchange flipped from favoring Cuomo to giving Mamdani a slim majority chance of victory. Traders pushed the socialist candidate up by roughly 15 percentage points in a single trading session. (mediaite.com)

Early-Vote Surge: Who’s Showing Up?

• Total early ballots: ≈ 385,000—double the 2021 figure. (ny1.com)

• Voters under 40: ≈ 40 % of the early electorate. (nypost.com)

• First-time primary voters since 2012: ≈ 22,000. (gothamist.com)

  
  

These demographics mirror Mamdani’s strongest cohorts and help explain why his campaign calls the early-vote universe “our firewall.”

Where the Lines Are Drawn

Issue	Cuomo	Mamdani
Public Safety	“Law-and-order,” 2,000 new NYPD officers.	Non-police crisis teams, mental-health and housing investment.
Housing	500 k new units; tax credits for developers.	Rent-freeze, social-housing authority, $30/hour min-wage by 2030.
Economy	Deregulation + business-tax incentives.	Progressive tax code, municipal public-bank, free buses.
Coalition	Clinton/Bloomberg wing, uniformed-services unions, real-estate donors. (fox5ny.com)	Sanders, AOC, major DSA chapters, immigrant-justice groups. (theguardian.com)

Strategy Check

Cuomo: relies on name recognition and a big-money TV blitz; insiders now admit the field operation is “thin.”Mamdani: 7,000-volunteer door-knock program, campus canvasses, and a WhatsApp network in immigrant neighborhoods.

Why Ranked-Choice Matters More Than Ever

In the Emerson crosstabs, 74 % of Brad Lander supporters list Mamdani as their next preference, while only 12 % flow to Cuomo. If those second choices materialize on Tuesday night, the former governor would need to build an improbable cushion on first-choice votes to survive later rounds. (emersoncollegepolling.com)

Election-Eve Wildcards

• Heat advisory: A forecasted 95 °F Election Day may depress older-voter turnout—Cuomo’s base—and tilt the in-person electorate even younger.

• Independent Eric Adams factor: Some moderate Democrats may skip the primary entirely, planning to back the incumbent in November.

• Anti-Cuomo PAC “D.R.E.A.M.” has spent $2.3 m on last-minute digital ads urging voters not to rank Cuomo at all.

  
  

The Take-Away

Cuomo still sports the deeper résumé and the thicker donor list, but the numbers that now matter most are not in his favor: more than 40 % of ballots are already cast—and they look a lot like Mamdani’s coalition.

If that early-vote surge holds through Election Day, New York could awaken on June 25 to its first democratic-socialist mayoral nominee—and a Democratic Party map that has been permanently redrawn.